Possible scenario
Araghchi Survives
45% Chance
The impeachment filing becomes a pressure tactic rather than a successful removal effort. Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian keep the U.S.-Iran technical talks alive while conservatives use the oil-price drop to extract public assurances on sanctions and export volumes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
- -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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