Possible scenario
Omani De-Escalation Track
22% Chance
Muscat uses its existing channel with Tehran and Gulf states to convert the enforcement claim into a temporary rules-of-navigation agreement. The outcome lowers the probability of near-term military contact and removes part of the oil-security premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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