Possible scenario
Managed Hormuz Disruption
38% Chance
Iran frames the action as enforcement against dark shipping and unauthorized routes rather than a full closure. Commercial traffic continues through narrower corridors under heavier inspection, raising costs and delays but avoiding immediate U.S.-Iran escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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