Possible scenario
Limited Military Deterrence
27% Chance
The United States and partners answer the IRGC missile fire with expanded naval escorts and limited defensive engagements. Both sides try to avoid a formal war, but the risk of accidental escalation remains high while shipping continues under military protection.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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