Possible scenario
Temporary Ban Implemented
45% Chance
The Trump administration moves quickly through Commerce and Energy Department authorities to restrict most diesel exports. The policy is framed as temporary relief for $6.53-per-gallon prices, with Gulf Coast refiners absorbing the largest hit from lost export outlets.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.2%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Tickers
- VLO-4.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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