Possible scenario
Diplomatic Fallout
20% Chance
The disclosure that Israel had the crew list before the attack creates room for recriminations between Israeli, UAE, and Omani security officials. The economic impact would depend on whether the dispute stays bureaucratic or affects route approvals and public confidence.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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