Possible scenario
Red Sea Stalemate
20% Chance
Neither side achieves a decisive breakthrough: the coalition destroys some depots, but Houthi units continue to seed mines and threaten vessels from mobile launch sites. Shipping disruption persists, but without a dramatic new strike on Saudi oil or a major vessel loss.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.