Possible scenario
Houthi Retaliation Expands
32% Chance
The Houthis answer the Saudi-led operation with missile, drone, and maritime attacks to show they can still threaten Saudi cities and Red Sea traffic. This is the main escalation risk because the group recently struck Riyadh and captured parts of the coast before the counteroffensive.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.