Possible scenario
Coalition Gains Hold
38% Chance
Saudi-Yemeni naval and ground operations degrade Houthi mine-laying and coastal logistics enough to stabilize the immediate Red Sea threat. The coalition consolidates parts of the captured coast, while the Houthis retain inland launch sites but lose some ability to threaten shipping lanes quickly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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