Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Intensifies
25% Chance
Moscow responds to the embarrassment of repeated capital-area drone penetrations with intensified strikes on Ukrainian cities, energy facilities, and command infrastructure. The escalation remains within the Russia-Ukraine theater but lifts near-term geopolitical risk premiums.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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