Possible scenario
Energy Targets Broaden
20% Chance
Ukraine extends the same drone-saturation approach from airports to Russian fuel, refinery, and pipeline infrastructure. The most market-relevant risk is a disruption to refined-product flows or Black Sea export logistics, though Russia retains repair capacity and alternative routing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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