Possible scenario
Aviation Disruption Persists
40% Chance
Ukraine continues using long-range drones to impose recurring costs on Moscow-area aviation without triggering a major change in the war's strategic trajectory. Russian air defenses adapt unevenly, leading to repeated airport closures, delays, and higher operating costs for carriers using Moscow hubs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.