Possible scenario
Political Deadlock Persists
30% Chance
The plan remains formally alive but is constrained by the same core dispute that stalled earlier Trump proposals: Hamas disarmament and who governs Gaza. Donors keep pledges on paper, but disbursement slows as Israel, Hamas, the Palestinian Authority and Arab mediators fail to agree on security control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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