Possible scenario
Ceasefire Breakdown
15% Chance
A major security incident derails the recovery plan, with Israel and Hamas returning to heavier fighting or sharply reduced ceasefire cooperation. Reconstruction is paused, border access tightens and the Board’s first phase becomes politically untenable in the near term.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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