Possible scenario
Yields Stabilize
30% Chance
After the headline crystallizes how severe the drawdown has become, pension funds, insurers, and global reserve managers step in to add duration. A modest retracement in yields supports risk appetite, especially in sectors punished by rising discount rates.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.3%
- Technology +1.2%
- Finance +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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