Possible scenario
Selloff Extends
35% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a continuation of the bond-market repricing as investors demand higher term premium and remain skeptical that inflation is fully contained. A negative feedback loop from higher yields, weaker duration demand, and equity de-risking keeps pressure on rate-sensitive assets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.3%
- Technology -1.3%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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