Possible scenario
Budget Stabilization Deal
34% Chance
The government forces through a pared-back 2027 budget or wins enough support from Les Républicains and centrist deputies to avoid collapse. This is the most market-stabilizing path because investors mainly need evidence that France can pass a fiscal plan before Fitch, S&P Global Ratings, or Moody’s act again.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +2.2%
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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