Possible scenario
Russia Tests Defenses
20% Chance
Moscow responds to the approval by trying to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defenses before the new missiles arrive in quantity. The result is a short-term rise in geopolitical risk, although the reaction remains far below crisis levels because the conflict is already ongoing and markets have partially priced recurring strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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