Possible scenario
Phased Deal Proceeds
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the $2.68 billion package moves through Foreign Military Sales channels with NATO members covering much of the financing. Deliveries are phased because interceptor production, testing, and Ukrainian integration capacity remain constrained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Tickers
- RTX+1.4%
- +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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