Possible scenario
Sanctions Workaround
15% Chance
Pakistan and Iran explore a narrow trade workaround after the U.S. blocked overland commerce. The most likely form is a limited barter or local-currency channel for food and electricity-adjacent goods, designed to avoid an open break with Washington.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.