Possible scenario
Managed Standoff
30% Chance
The visit stabilizes military-to-military communication but does not resolve the border shutdown or U.S. objections to overland trade. This is a plausible middle path because Pakistan needs dialogue with Iran while it remains tied to the Saudi security pact and exposed to U.S. leverage.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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