Possible scenario
Border De-Escalation
40% Chance
Munir's Tehran visit produces a practical security bargain after Pakistan's border closure and halted trade. Both sides prioritize avoiding a repeat of the January 2024 strike exchange while preserving room to manage U.S. and Saudi sensitivities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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