Possible scenario
Iranian Retaliation Spiral
30% Chance
Iran treats the Limas strike as a direct US attack on its maritime network and retaliates against US, allied, or commercial assets. The risk shifts from sanctions enforcement to a broader US-Iran naval confrontation across the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz, and nearby bases.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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