Possible scenario
Controlled Naval Escalation
45% Chance
Washington confirms or effectively acknowledges a limited strike on the sanctioned tanker Limas, framing it as a narrow action tied to sanctions enforcement and recent IRGC attacks. Tehran protests and threatens retaliation, but both sides avoid immediate direct strikes on each other's core military assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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