Possible scenario
Backchannel De-Escalation
15% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries press both sides to halt attacks around Hormuz and define rules for convoy movements. The United States keeps sanctions pressure on Iran but avoids further strikes, while Tehran reduces visible naval activity to preserve leverage without triggering a larger conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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