Possible scenario
Talks Stall Quietly
30% Chance
Russia avoids formally accepting Ukraine’s offer but does not immediately launch a maximal strike campaign. The conflict returns to an unstable pattern of sporadic energy attacks, counterstrikes, and diplomatic blame-shifting.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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