Possible scenario
Grid War Escalates
25% Chance
Moscow calculates that winter pressure on Ukraine’s power supply offers more leverage than a narrow truce. A larger strike campaign would deepen humanitarian risks and push allies toward faster air-defense deliveries.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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