Possible scenario
Regional proxy escalation
30% Chance
Instead of relying on a single direct Iranian strike, Tehran leans on allied groups in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to raise costs for Washington. This path keeps deniability but increases risks to shipping, energy infrastructure and U.S. bases across the region.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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