Possible scenario
Limited U.S. strikes
38% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is a calibrated U.S. campaign against IRGC missile, drone, command and radar assets while avoiding leadership targets. Iran has already evacuated bases, suggesting both sides may be preparing for a strike that is painful but not designed to force regime change.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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