Possible scenario
Diplomatic stand-down
18% Chance
The evacuation of IRGC bases may also be intended to survive coercive diplomacy rather than guarantee immediate war. Back-channel talks through Oman, Qatar or Iraq could delay strikes if Iran offers a pause on attacks or inspections tied to enrichment sites.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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