Possible scenario
Protest Escalation
15% Chance
The emergency plan fails to convince protest leaders, and confrontations spread beyond school gates into city centers. The probability is lower than a negotiated or managed outcome, but recent closure numbers and the emergency meeting suggest a real escalation tail risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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