Possible scenario
Negotiated Reopening
45% Chance
The emergency education plan offers enough near-term staffing, safety, and funding measures for the Education Ministry to reopen most of the 413 closed high schools. Student groups keep symbolic actions alive, but the center of gravity shifts from blockades to negotiations with unions including SNES-FSU and Sud Education.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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