Possible scenario
Managed Standoff
30% Chance
The emergency plan is viewed as too limited by student and teacher organizations, but neither side immediately breaks off talks. The result is a controlled standoff: rolling school closures, periodic demonstrations, and negotiations over the €43 billion savings plan rather than a full political crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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