Possible scenario
Partial U.S. Control
38% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that U.S. forces gain operational control over parts of the Strait of Hormuz but cannot fully normalize traffic immediately. Trump's victory claim is partly validated by resumed escorted shipping, though mines, damaged vessels, insurance costs, and Iranian shore-based threats keep risk elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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