Possible scenario
Control Remains Contested
28% Chance
Iran is unable to restore full naval control but retains enough coastal missile, drone, mine, and small-boat capacity to challenge U.S. claims. This creates a dangerous but bounded military contest rather than immediate de-escalation or a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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