Possible scenario
Trade Bargaining Link
25% Chance
The precursor ban is treated less as a standalone counternarcotics step and more as a bargaining chip in the post-2025 tariff arrangement. Beijing asks for continued tariff relief or softer export-control treatment in exchange for keeping pressure on chemical suppliers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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