Possible scenario
Managed Diplomatic Thaw
45% Chance
China's ban on two fentanyl precursors becomes the opening concession for a constructive Xi visit to the United States. Beijing and Washington preserve the late-2025 tariff easing framework while adding a law-enforcement channel between China's Ministry of Public Security and the U.S. DEA.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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