Possible scenario
Compliance Dispute Escalates
18% Chance
U.S. agencies conclude that Chinese suppliers are quickly routing fentanyl inputs through substitute chemicals or third-country brokers. The diplomatic mood worsens if the White House argues that Beijing's action is too narrow to change trafficking patterns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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