Possible scenario
Tax Gets Watered Down
40% Chance
The most likely path is that France uses the 31.4% proposal as a bargaining chip after the failed 2027 budget revenue plan. Lawmakers, AMF officials, and crypto industry groups push the measure toward narrower anti-avoidance language rather than a blanket tax on stablecoin conversions.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- CRCL+1.6%
- COIN+1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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