Possible scenario
Mission Anomaly Returns
27% Chance
A meaningful anomaly remains a realistic risk because Starship is still early in its operational history despite rapid progress since 2024. Even if the headline launch initially appears successful, problems during deployment, reentry, or vehicle disposal could slow the next mission.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.8%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX-5.0%
- RKLB+1.4%
- VSAT+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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