Possible scenario
Supply Relief, Disorder
27% Chance
France secures some additional Gulf supply, but the domestic security situation keeps distribution unreliable. Armed clashes around depots and roadblocks prevent fuel from reaching major urban areas fast enough to calm the riots.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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