Possible scenario
Hormuz Escalation Widens
23% Chance
Iran or Iran-aligned forces challenge the UAE route directly, making the French fuel plan dependent on military deterrence. This turns a French fuel crisis into a broader oil-shipping and insurance shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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