Possible scenario
Limited Violations Resume
18% Chance
The main downside risk is that a Hamas faction, Palestinian Islamic Jihad cell, or unaffiliated militant group breaks the rocket silence. Israel would likely respond forcefully but still try to avoid a full Gaza ground campaign unless attacks persist.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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