Possible scenario
Frozen Conflict Persists
25% Chance
The cease-fire holds militarily, but the political process remains stuck over Hamas disarmament, prisoner issues, and Gaza governance. This outcome preserves the rocket-free status quo while leaving humanitarian and diplomatic risks unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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