Possible scenario
Durable Security Quiet
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the cease-fire architecture survives because Hamas remains militarily constrained, Egypt keeps Rafah routes tight, and Israel maintains persistent surveillance. The rocket-free milestone becomes a self-reinforcing political fact, even without a final-status Gaza settlement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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