Possible scenario
Limited Coordinated Strikes
42% Chance
Washington and Jerusalem proceed with a narrowly scoped strike package against Iranian nuclear, missile, and air-defense targets. Iran responds but avoids a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping the conflict dangerous but contained.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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