Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause
24% Chance
U.S. strike planning continues, but Qatar, Oman, and European governments secure a temporary pause to prevent energy-market panic. Brent retreats from crisis levels as traders price lower immediate odds of a Gulf supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +4.0%
- Energy -3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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