Possible scenario
Russia Rebuilds Channels
25% Chance
Russia moves quickly to replace the blocked network with new settlement vehicles using yuan, dirham, ruble clearing and smaller non-Western banks. The sanctions remain costly but do not remove the 13% trade channel for long.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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