Possible scenario
Rout Deepens
25% Chance
The auction cancellation becomes a sign of impaired market access rather than a one-off technical pause. Investors demand a larger fiscal risk premium, the real weakens further, and Brazil-specific stress starts spilling modestly into broader emerging-market risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.8%
- Energy -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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