Possible scenario
Fiscal Concession Calms Rout
35% Chance
The most likely stabilization path is a quick fiscal credibility gesture from Lula’s team, led by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, to reopen the bond market and slow the post-election selloff. Markets remain skeptical, but even a partial spending-cap or primary-balance commitment could trigger short-covering after the circuit breaker and auction cancellation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.